Bio David Payne

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David Payne

Staff Economist
The Kiplinger Letter

David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Latest Features

Economic Forecasts
January 2018

A Good (but Shorter) Holiday Season is Coming

Kiplinger’s latest forecast on retail sales and consumer spending.

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Economic Forecasts
January 2018

Health Insurance and Hospital Costs Kicking Up Inflation

Kiplinger’s latest forecast on inflation

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Economic Forecasts
January 2018

Consumers, Home Buyers Keep Growth Afloat

Kiplinger’s latest forecast for the GDP growth rate

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Economic Forecasts
December 2017

Fed Cuts Rates; Yield Curve Back to “Normal”

Kiplinger’s latest forecast on interest rates

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Economic Forecasts
January 2018

Job Gains Slowing, Unemployment Dropping

Kiplinger’s latest forecast on jobs

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Economic Forecasts
December 2017

Business Spending Likely in for Long Slump

Kiplinger’s latest forecast on business equipment spending

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SLIDE SHOW
October 2019

States With the Fastest Rates of Job Growth, 2020

U.S. job growth in 2019 is likely to average 170,000 jobs per month, down from 223,000 in 2018. The decline is partly attributable to fewer available workers to hire with the low unemployment rate. Also, ...

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SLIDE SHOW
October 2019

States With the Slowest Rates of Job Growth, 2020

U.S. job growth in 2019 is likely to average 170,000 jobs per month, down from 223,000 in 2018. The decline is partly attributable to fewer available workers to hire with the low unemployment rate. Also, ...

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SLIDE SHOW
October 2019

Kiplinger Economic Outlook for All 50 States 2020

Low jobless rates and rising incomes are helping to fatten state coffers across the U.S. Revenue from sales, personal and corporate taxes is on the rise --the best growth since before the Great Recession. States ...

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Social Security
July 2019

What Is the Social Security COLA for 2020?

It's official: Social Security benefits will rise 1.6% next year, confirming Kiplinger's forecast for the cost-of-living adjustment.

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Practical Economics
August 2019

Is a Recession Imminent?

Shoppers will have to carry the load for now because weak business investment shows no sign of perking up anytime soon. Odds are, they’ll be able to.

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SLIDE SHOW
January 2019

States Most Unprepared for the Next Recession

Most state budgets are in better shape now than they were before the last recession, thanks to steady growth in employment and the resulting rise in tax revenue. Many states have been socking away cash ...

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Economic Forecasts
January 2019

Falling Stocks Can Ding the Economy

Market corrections cause consumers to keep a tighter grip on their wallets

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SLIDE SHOW
August 2018

10 States With the Fastest Rate of Job Growth, 2018

The U.S. economy is humming along nicely. But how long can the good times continue? Widespread growth spells even tighter labor markets, and that could start to crimp regional growth rates. Job openings ...

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SLIDE SHOW
August 2018

Kiplinger's Economic Outlook for All 50 States

America’s economic engine will continue to hum across all major regions throughout 2018. The strongest growth is in the West, with plenty of high-wage jobs being created in tech-related hardware and ...

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Practical Economics
June 2018

Will You Have to Pay More Sales Taxes on Your Online Purchases?

One thing’s for sure: Consumers who live in one of the five states without a sales tax won’t be affected by the Supreme Court’s ruling.

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Practical Economics
June 2018

3 Factors That Could Drive the Next Recession

The economy is humming along nicely, but how long can the good times continue?

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